The 3×3 Method

If we want to achieve a high level of safety during a mountain hike, careful preparation is required. Any preparation necessarily requires having a plan.

The basis of every plan must be a strategic decision. We must choose a goal. It can be a mountain peak, a mountain hut-shelter, or the crossing of a specific route, such as crossing a mountain valley-plateau-saddle, crossing a ridge-arête, etc. We must not forget that we must also return to base, or rather home. Only by being aware of the goal can we think about how (from where) to reach it, how (with what strategy) to proceed on the path and what we will need during the journey. That is, we define the means and tactics with which we will achieve the defined strategic goal. This planning method has been known to humanity since antiquity and still helps people achieve increasingly distant goals.

Three-level strategy

First, we must decide exactly where we are going in the mountains. It is necessary to familiarize ourselves with the selected area, to know the geographical section and to learn what may await us there. Familiarity with the specific goal and area is a practically endless process. During the activity, as we approach the area and then walk within it, we constantly observe how the environment looks to us, what our impressions are in relation to safety, what the situation is there. This monitoring process does not stop during the event, and continues even more.

For a better understanding of this process, we can compare it to cinematographic shots, where the camera, with shots from different points and distance, gradually approaches the scene. The first level of viewing we will call “Extreme Long Shot/ at home“, the second level of viewing “Wide Shot/ at the starting point” and the third level of viewing “Close-up/ during the action”.

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Level 1 – «Extreme Long Shot»

At this planning level, we begin to familiarize ourselves with the target area while we are still at home. We search for all possible information, such as maps, relevant literature, articles by mountaineers in the press, information online, interviews with people who know the area, etc. This will give us a first idea of what to expect. Initially, we will understand which climatic zone the mountain range we have chosen is located in and what kind of weather will prevail there. In exotic areas, it is important to know in advance which diseases may occur and which combination of vaccinations is deemed necessary. We can also tell if the mountain range is glaciated or not, rocky, steep or “bare” hilly. If it is rocky, what difficulties may arise here? A lot can be inferred from the knowledge of the geological structure and the development of the mountain ranges. Although mountain ranges share several similar characteristics, what distinguishes them from each other, apart from their geographical location (and therefore the climate that prevailed in the past and present), is their composition and development.

All this information contributes to our decision on where to go and what to choose as our goal. The goal must be chosen according to our capabilities in order to be able to achieve it. We must also have the hiking and/or mountaineering equipment and gear necessary to achieve our goal. At this point, we must already be thinking about the tactics we will use during the action, because the chosen tactic (or strategy with which we will proceed) requires the condition that we have adequate equipment.

Some information must be found as up-to-date as possible before departure. We can check the weather forecast in the area in advance for the time of our visit. In winter, even at this viewing level, the currently declared avalanche risk level can be determined in civilized areas. An overview of other potential hazards can be obtained by studying the natural conditions of the area. The geographical location is important in relation to the climatic conditions, the geology will warn us of the possibility of water scarcity in the area, a lot can be inferred from information about the prevailing vegetation, but also the fauna that dominates the area as many species may be a direct threat. Other species again, maybe threatened…

Already at this first level of planning, it is extremely important to take care of creating backups.

Level 2 – “Wide Shot/ at the starting point”

This level appears most often in the morning in a mountain hut or in a camp when we look out of a tent, but also at the station after getting off the train, the cable car or in the parking lot where we arrived by car, etc. It is that moment when we are already “here” and wonder if we really should go where we planned.

First of all, we see what the weather is like in our target area, how much fresh snow has fallen in winter, etc.

It is an undeniable advantage to check the latest weather forecast now. Information is usually available at mountain resorts and local rescuers are usually willing to provide updated information.

At this point, it is time to reconsider the entire plan and evaluate how “feasible” it might be in the face of “objective” reality. This is, of course, completely necessary, especially if there is no time to implement a “reserve” program (plan B) or reduce the original plan.

Level 3 – «Close-up/ during the action»

Now this is no longer planning in the true sense of the word. During the hike, the most likely thing is to check if everything is going according to plan. We check if we are following the correct route, we observe the changes in the weather and in case of snow the quality of its layers in relation to the avalanche danger.

Regarding planning, the most we can do is modify our plan, either by changing tactics, diverting to an alternative goal, or in case of very unfavorable conditions, retreating completely back to the starting point.

The 3×3 method summarizes the following:

ΑΤ ΗΟΜΕ

Weather report online. Additional information (from the hut, rescue team, etc.)

Study of route maps, terrain relief, total ascent, slope, etc. Bibliography/articles. Alternative routes and escape routes.

Who are the team members and who is the leader? Choice of ascent tactics and pace (depending on the team’s capabilities). Selection of appropriate equipment.

AT THE STARTING POINT

Visibility, wind, rainfall, temperature? Change in weather compared to yesterday? Has new snow fallen? Where is the windward side and which is the leeward side? Avalanche danger level?

Terrain relief? Snowdrifts/old snow? Fallen rocks? Flooded streams? Slope of adjacent sides to the path? What are the options for bypassing a dangerous part of the path?

Who is actually here? Their condition before the start? Who is the leader? Will the pre-selected ascent tactics work? Will extra equipment be needed? Is there enough time to adhere to the original schedule? Checking the batteries of electrical devices.

DURING THE ΗΙΚΕ

Are there weather change trends? Visibility? Change in wind direction? New snow? how much? is a layer of snow forming? Is the sun shining? Is the snow melting?

Do I know where I am? Am I lost? Can something fall on me? Where will I end up if I fall? Does the terrain relief/terrein require protection? Orientation of adjacent slopes? What is the steepest part?

Change of program and retreat route

When “everything goes wrong”, we should accept that perhaps the intended plan cannot be implemented. We can make this discovery at various stages of the journey, either during planning or directly during the hike. At that moment, it is extremely important to have a well-thought-out alternative program or even a retreat route if the hike is already underway.

It is an indisputable fact that people gravitate towards planned activities when making decisions. This is probably due to the subconscious fear of an uncertain future that has accompanied humanity since time immemorial. A plan is like a beam of light that «illuminates» the future and we know where we are going. It is psychologically very difficult (especially in a group of people) to abandon a plan and enter an uncertain situation. It is an interesting paradox that people prefer to take risks by doing «what was planned» rather than going to a safe environment when they don’t know exactly what they will do and what will happen there.

When planning our trip, it is necessary to keep alternative program options in mind and inform all participants in the event in advance. Depending on the interests of the team members, it is a good idea to choose a different goal or another activity that will entertain all participants. When the possibility arises that the plan may need to be changed for safety reasons, the event participants will not be caught by surprise. When people know what will happen in advance, they are more likely to participate without objection. At the same time, it is always good to have ready variations of the originally planned activity (in our case, alpine/mountain tourism). The so-called “maximalist” and “minimalist” variations. Maximalism presupposes, for example, a complete crossing of the ridge of the selected mountain range (in another way), while in minimalism, if the current conditions prove to be extremely unfavorable, we can climb (choosing a safe route) to a less important peak of the mountain range and return to base. It is not necessary to abandon the original idea, as if conditions improve, the ridge ascent can still be carried out, but it is likely that the route will need to be shortened somehow. However, it cannot be disputed that the action may have progressed so far that it is no longer possible to divert the plan in a different direction. Then, in adverse conditions, there is no other choice but to stop the effort and return. Something that is easy to say, but sometimes harder to do. In a mountain environment, it is not always possible to simply return the same way we arrived at a place. For example, after overcoming a difficult spot on the terrain, it is not always the most practical to return through it when retreating. There may be easier exits. These are the so-called escape routes. We must have thought about these escape routes during planning and have them in reserve for use. When planning, we do not only think about the one and only “our own” path, but in reality we must think about many.

Experience and physical condition of team members

An essential part of any plan and intended tactics is to consider who will implement the plan. Everything stands and falls with the human factor. A plan should not be an «empty shell» that typically meets all requirements for perfection, but lacks the ability to be implemented in practice. The capabilities of the members are a limiting factor for creating any plan. A good plan must be «tailored» to people’s measures.

Just as a chain is only as strong as its weakest link, so is a group of people. The plan must be designed so that the weakest member of the team can carry it out. It is naive to believe that the more experienced members of the team will miraculously help the weaker ones and speed up their pace.

The weakness of a team member can be physical fitness; the person in question simply lacks strength and physical condition. However, the person may also lack skills. Even simple walking on a slope requires a certain amount of practice and skill, let alone walking with crampons. It must be made clear here – moving in the mountains off the beaten path requires skills that can only be acquired with practice!

More experienced and capable members can help the weaker members in simpler situations, but it is important to note that this will complicate and slow down the process, and this must be taken into account in advance during planning. The more weak members there are in a team, the less effective the team will be. We pay attention to the ratio of strong to weaker members. As the complexity and difficulty of the goal increases, the less participation of weaker or inexperienced members is allowed in the team. If the more capable are to help the less capable in something, it is necessary that the more capable are overrepresented.

When the activity involves more complex procedures, such as the use of special climbing equipment (ice axe, crampons, rope, belay), the team must consist only of people who know how to use these tools. There is no room for experimentation or trial and error here. It’s serious! The leadership of inexperienced people in terrain that requires climbing equipment is recommended only for professional climbing instructors or mountain guides.

Time estimation

The basic axis of every plan is the time adherence to the program. We need to know how long we will be on the road, from which we can then deduce when we will start to reach our destination at a specific time. During the hike, we overcome both distance and – in the mountains – altitude difference. These two elements of hiking are related and influence each other.

A person or a small group of people in good physical condition can walk in about 1 hour:

• 350 vertical meters on the ascent
• 700 vertical meters on descent
• Horizontal distance 4.5 km

For a larger group of people, 30% more time is required.

When planning at level 1 (” at home”), we can measure the marked route on the map. First, we calculate the length of the route, and then, using the contour lines, we add up all the altitude differences. We will add the times for all ascents and all descents separately. Then we add both data and get the time required to overcome the total altitude difference.

The approximate time of the route can be calculated using the following formula:

From the times calculated for the distance and the ascent, the smaller value is divided by two and added to the larger value.

Example:

Ascent 1,600 meters …a small group… about 4.5 hours

15 kilometers of route …about 3.5 hours. This value (3.5 hours) is the smaller one, which divided by two is 1.75 hours (i.e., one hour and three quarters).

4,5 + 1,75 ­= 6,25 hours (i.e., 6 hours and a quarter).

For a larger group we add 30% to the time

The hike will last about 8 hours.

We can have the best overview of our hiking route by creating a so-called graph of the altitude profile of the route. The Y axis is height, the X axis is distance. We will plot the basic points of our route on the graph, such as peaks, saddles, shelters and other important places. We will record the time required to overcome each section defined by these points.

Then, it is necessary to add a specific amount of time to these time estimates, as we must take into account that we may be delayed somewhere, there may be some complications or we simply will not be as fast as we intended (for example, because we are carrying heavy backpacks). The extra time reserve will give us time to overcome these problems.

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Weather forecast

The weather has a fundamental impact on the feasibility of the hike we are pursuing. If bad weather conditions arise, very little or almost nothing can be done. For this reason, we pay great attention to the weather forecast when planning a hike. The most up-to-date weather forecast is of utmost importance. It is a good idea to check the forecast again in the morning before our hike. Other sources of current forecast are a phone call, either directly to the meteorological service or to the mountain rescue service. It is good to pay attention to issues such as storm conditions, the promotion of a cold front, the sharp drop in temperature, etc.

Just before the hike (level 2 – ” at the starting point”), we make the most basic observations, noting the cloud cover, the direction and intensity of the wind. A drop in atmospheric pressure during the night usually portends a deterioration of the weather…